Stocks
October 22, 2026
Meta Class C Shares Give Zuckerberg Fresh Funding Without Losing Control
- Tesla stock could reach $5,000 by 2031 under ARK’s bull case, driven by robotaxi and Optimus growth
- Trump thanked Musk for pledging SpaceX shares to American children through Trump Accounts in 2027
- MarketCapOf’s comparison puts Tesla at $645.41 per share if it matched SpaceX’s market cap
Tesla stock would need a massive transformation to reach the prices Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest now projects for 2031. Its latest forecast depends on businesses that stretch well beyond electric vehicles, with robotaxis carrying much of the valuation. Meanwhile, Donald Trump has thanked Elon Musk for his SpaceX share pledge to American children. The headlines put both companies in focus, but a comparison of their valuations shows how ambitious ARK’s expectations really are.
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What Supports ARK’s $5,000 Tesla Stock Forecast?
ARK’s updated Tesla price prediction places its expected value at approximately $4,400 per share. The $5,000 bull case and $3,300 bear case represent the model’s 75th and 25th percentile outcomes.
Its bull scenario implies a $20.4 trillion market capitalization. Getting there assumes 10 million robotaxis generating $899 billion in annual ride-hailing net revenue, alongside $254 billion in Optimus revenue.
ARK estimates the Tesla robotaxi business will account for roughly 80% of enterprise value in 2031. This makes the pace of autonomous driving deployment far more consequential to this forecast than vehicle sales alone.
These remain ARK’s assumptions. The firm identifies slower robotaxi expansion, including regulatory delays, as a principal risk and acknowledges that its model reflects its positive outlook on Tesla.
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Trump Thanks Musk for SpaceX Share Pledge
Trump’s response provides a new development in SpaceX. The president thanked Musk for the planned donation and said SpaceX shares would be distributed through Trump Accounts, according to reports. Musk had pledged one of his shares to each American child in 2027.
The acknowledgment identifies an intended distribution channel, although implementation details remain unresolved. The pledge concerns SpaceX ownership and does not change Tesla’s earnings outlook.
Tesla at SpaceX’s Market Cap Would Be Worth $645 a Share
A MarketCapOf comparison puts the valuation gap into perspective. Using current figures, Tesla’s market capitalization is approximately $1.46 trillion, compared with SpaceX’s $2.55 trillion.
Holding Tesla’s share count constant, matching that SpaceX valuation would imply a Tesla share price of $645.41, about 75% above the tool’s $368.78 reference price. The calculator also values 1,000 Tesla shares at $645,409.02 under that scenario. This input represents shares owned, rather than a $1,000 investment.
Even matching SpaceX’s valuation would leave Tesla far below ARK’s $5,000 bull case. The comparison is hypothetical, but it illustrates the scale of the forecast. Tesla would need to grow well beyond that benchmark while turning robotaxis and Optimus into substantial commercial businesses.
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