Bitcoin Price Heads Into US Midterms After Back-to-Back October Losses, Can November Reverse the Trend?

• Bitcoin price faces renewed uncertainty as historical cycle-bottom patterns bring the US midterm elections into focus
• Bitcoin October losses mark the second consecutive year of negative returns, putting the Bitcoin November recovery in focus
• The BTC forecast points to a potential $78K level by November-end, although the outlook remains subject to market volatility

Bitcoin is currently entering November with new hopes as its price continues to encounter violent fluctuations. The recent Binance hack has led BTC forecasts to dim a little, however, investors are now betting on two historical trends that may change the course of Bitcoin’s November price movements. Bitcoin has recorded a cycle bottom shortly after each US midterm election. The upcoming US midterm elections on November 3 have put both patterns into focus again. Will Bitcoin encounter a new cycle bottom in November?

Also Read: Coinbase Stock Falls 3.3% as Revenue Drops 35% and Bitcoin Premium Hits Four-Year Low

Bitcoin Cycle Bottom Puts US Midterm Election In Focus

One historical trend is currently gaining momentum related to the Bitcoin price. It’s been observed how the Bitcoin price usually encounters a cycle bottom shortly after the US midterm elections. In the last three US midterm elections, Bitcoin has undergone cyclical bottoms, putting emphasis on how the event may impact its price in the long haul. In 2014, the Bitcoin price recorded its low 71 days after the vote. The same pattern appeared in 2018 and 2022, it was when Bitcoin bottomed 39 days and 13 days after the elections.

These three instances have raised questions about whether the US midterm elections scheduled for tomorrow, i.e., November 3, may follow the same cycle.

However, per a recent CoinDesk report, the Bitcoin price has already recorded its low on July 1, when it went down to hit the $57K mark. This suggests that the market may have already hit its cycle bottom. However, the Bitcoin November forecast continues to be a center of debate among investors.

Also Read: XRP Supercycle Forecast Faces Test as Binance Hack Hits Before November Ledger Fix

Bitcoin October Losses Draw Attention

October, which was considered a bullish month for the crypto market in general, has drawn disappointing metrics for the market. The “Uptober” optimism has vanished as markets continue to tank, with Bitcoin recording an intramonth low near $76K this month.

This marks the second consecutive year Bitcoin has ended October in negative terms. The Bitcoin November trajectory has usually been a mix of good and bad, delivering a mixed performance. Bitcoin has ended the month higher in five of the ten years between 2016 and 2025.

Bitcoin November Forecast

According to the CoinCodex BTC forecast, the Bitcoin price may reach approximately $78K by the end of November 2026. This is a model-based estimate and not a guaranteed price target.

According to the MarketCapOf Crypto Calculator, a hypothetical $1,000 investment in BTC at approximately $78,488 would be worth around $996.78 if its price hits $78K by the end of this month. This would represent a potential loss of approximately $3,15, excluding fees.

Also Read: Reddit Stock Falls 18% Despite 53% Revenue Growth, How Does It Compare With Pinterest?