Markets
August 31, 2026
US Makes Two Very Different Oil Moves as Iran Strikes Resume and Venezuela Deal Takes Shape
- US dollar bearish positioning is rising, with traders showing stronger demand for options that benefit from further weakness
- Gold bullish positioning has surged, with the GLD call-put open interest gap reaching about 2.4 million contracts
- Gold price and Bitcoin are both gaining attention as investors look toward alternative assets amid dollar weakness and broader US fiscal concerns
The US fiscal concerns are once again coming into focus, as investors continue to find ways to diversify away from the US dollar. In this process, gold is gaining fresh momentum again, as investors adopt a more cautious stance against the US dollar. Apart from this, investors are now positioning for further weakness in the US dollar, while bullish sentiment around gold is also rising, creating an interesting shift in the market. This change has arrived as the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has fallen 2.8% over the past two months, adding to the broader focus on alternative assets.
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Investors Are Now Betting Against the US Dollar
Hedge funds are increasingly taking positions against the US dollar. These funds are betting against USD, adding positions that may benefit if the US dollar falls. Per the Kobeissi Letter, one-month options data is now showing bets against the USD have reached their weakest since February. In simpler terms, traders are now showing more interest in options that could benefit from a weaker US dollar than a stronger one, creating a sharp contrast.
This shift is also quite evident in dollar and euro options. On August 21, demand for US dollar put options was 47% higher than demand for dollar calls. This data estimate is given by Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation data cited by the Kobeissi Letter.
“Hedge funds are ramping up bets against the US dollar. 1-month risk reversals on the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index are down to -0.25, their lowest since February. This measures the difference in demand between bullish and bearish dollar options. By comparison, this metric was positive from March through July, marking a sharp reversal in positioning over the last few weeks. Furthermore, demand for US Dollar put options versus the Euro was +47% higher than US Dollar calls on August 21st, according to Depository Trust and Clearing Corp data. Meanwhile, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has by -2.8% over the last 2 months, to its lowest level% over the last 2 months, to its lowest since May. Bets against the US dollar are surging.”
This shift has coincided with stronger interest in alternative assets such as gold and Bitcoin as investors navigate the ongoing market volatility.
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Gold Bets Are Rising
With concerns around the US dollar continuing to grow, investors have already started to look at alternative routes. In this process, the sentiment towards gold has already turned bullish. Another KL post adds more momentum to the trend by sharing statistics around SPDR Gold Shares. Gold Shares ETF (GLD) has recorded a gap of 2.4M contracts between call and put open interest, its highest level since February. This gap has now increased by nearly 1M contracts.
In simple terms, calls are generally used when traders expect prices to rise. At the same time, puts are used when they expect the prices to fall. A growing gap between the two suggests that traders are becoming more bullish on gold, as US economic conditions continue to create uncertainty around the US dollar.
“Bullish positioning in gold is surging: The difference between call open interest and put open interest on the gold ETF, $GLD, hit ~2.4 million contracts this week, its highest level since February. This gap has increased by +1.0 million contracts since Japan’s intervention to support the Yen 3 weeks ago, with the increase accelerating after the US Treasury unexpectedly doubled its planned buybacks of long-dated government debt on Wednesday. This is also more than triple the 2021-2024 average of ~0.8 million contracts. A similar spike to ~2.8 million contracts was recorded in January and February, as gold prices surpassed $5,500/oz for the first time. Renewed macro and currency uncertainty is once again driving investors to aggressively bet on gold to rise. Sentiment is shifting again.”
This shift is merely not restricted towards gold.
Bitcoin is also gaining momentum during the broader market shift, with the asset crossing $80K for the first time in months.
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