US Dollar Bullish Bets Surge Past $35B as Bank of America Warns on Gold

• Gold price faces pressure as bullish US dollar bets climb above $35 billion, while Bank of America warns about weak physical gold demand
• A dovish Fed shift or renewed fears of currency debasement could help gold prices recover
• MarketCapOf’s comparison shows Newmont shares fell about 7% and Barrick shares about 3% between September 15 and October 14, 2026, highlighting recent weakness in both gold-mining stocks

The gold price at the present is facing intense pressure from the surging US dollar bets. At the same time, the uncertainty regarding the Fed rate decision is also weighing on the asset, making it difficult for gold prices to recover. Speculative traders, on the other hand, are rebuilding their bullish positions for the US dollar as Bank of America issues a new warning about gold. Here’s what the two developments are all about.

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US Dollar Bets Climb Above $35B

Speculative traders are now increasing their bullish bets for the US dollar. Per Reuters, net bullish positions for the US dollar stood at around $36B in the week ended October 7, up from $8.4B three weeks earlier. The increase follows a period when the bullish bets had fallen sharply from a peak of nearly $47B earlier in the year to below $10B.

“Speculative traders are holding more than +$35 billion in net bullish US dollar positions, according to CFTC data through October 6th. This marks a sharp rebound in bullish positioning after net bets declined from a peak of nearly +$47 billion earlier this year to below $10 billion. These positions reflect futures bets by non-commercial traders, including asset managers, who are positioning for the US dollar to strengthen rather than hedging existing currency exposure.”

This positioning data reflects futures activity by non-commercial traders, a group that includes funds and other speculative market participants. The dollar recently benefited from demand for safer assets among investors.

Reuters reported that the US Dollar Index hit an 18-month high on October 12, as investors reassessed their positions, supporting the dollar. However, the dollar’s direction can change as market expectations shift.

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Bank Of America Sees Limited Support For Gold

Despite the building pressure, gold demand is currently trying its best to resist the changing environments. Gold-backed ETFs are continuing to attract investment, even though the gold prices face turmoil due to the higher yields and stronger US dollar. In this process, Bank of America has warned that investment flows alone may not be enough to support gold prices right now. The bank further shared how supporting elements such as central banks’ gold buying and physical demand in key markets, including China and India, have also weakened. This development also has a significant impact on the asset.

The bank further shared how gold prices may need some stimulation in the form of a Fed rate shift. A more dovish Fed rate decision or the end of the rate-hiking cycle may finally help gold prices find room to recover. Renewed concerns about currency debasement could also support the metal.

To put this into perspective, MCO’s comparison tool shows how two gold-mining stocks have performed recently. MarketCapOf’s comparison tool shows that Newmont Corporation (NEM) fell to 0.93x its starting value, while Barrick Gold Corporation (ABX) fell to 0.97x its starting value between September 15 and October 14, 2026. Both gold-mining stocks recorded declines over the period, with Newmont showing the larger drop in the comparison. This gives investors another way to assess how gold-related equities are performing amid a stronger US dollar and uncertainty over the gold price outlook.

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