Stocks
November 6, 2026
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- Tesla (TSLA) and SpaceX (SPCX) stock lost approximately $456 billion in combined market value following the Democratic sweep in the US midterm elections
- MarketCapOf data shows a $2,000 investment in Tesla grew to $2,258 in October, while the same investment in SpaceX fell to $1,820
- Despite the selloff, Kalshi traders continue to price a roughly 71% chance of a Tesla SpaceX merger announcement before 2028
Elon Musk’s companies have gone from a mixed October to a bruising start to November. Tesla stock and SpaceX stock were battered following Democrats’ midterm victories, wiping billions off their combined valuation. The selloff has done little to shake traders betting on a merger between the two businesses. But which firm has been bringing investors the most gains?
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Tesla and SpaceX Stocks Plunge as Democrats Win US Midterm Elections
Tesla’s share price closed at $343.69, a 10.77% slide, while SpaceX (SPCX) dropped 9.05% to $123.62. Together, the companies shed approximately $456 billion in market value across two sessions.
The losses followed the US midterm elections, which put Democrats on course to control Congress and brought an unexpected change in Texas. Democrat Gina Hinojosa defeated Governor Greg Abbott, putting a new spotlight on the state where both Musk companies are based.
Data centers are part of the concern. Hinojosa has called for stronger protections for residents, while SpaceX has been expanding its AI computing business.
Reports revealed that the political shift could complicate Musk’s proposed $119 billion Terafab chip project. A wider technology selloff also weighed on shares.
Tesla Beats SpaceX in October ROI Despite Five-Year Losses
The contrast between the two stocks becomes clearer when looking at their October performances. According to MarketCapOf’s ROI calculator, TSLA stock returned 1.13x between October 1 and October 31, while SPCX stock recorded a 0.91x multiple.
A $2,000 investment at the beginning of October would have grown to $2,258.11 in Tesla. The same amount in SpaceX would have fallen to $1,819.67, leaving a $438.44 difference.
October’s lead offers little comfort to investors looking further back. Barchart’s five-year comparison puts a $10,000 Tesla investment at roughly $8,437 by November 5, meaning Tesla’s five-year returns remain negative.
Tesla-SpaceX Merger Odds Hold Near 71% Despite Selloff
Meanwhile, Kalshi merger odds have remained surprisingly firm. Traders priced a definitive Tesla-SpaceX merger announcement before 2028 at roughly 71% on November 6, only modestly below the 75% cited earlier in the week.
Musk previously called the idea a good one, and reports revealed that special committees at both companies are examining a possible deal.
It should be noted that nothing has been agreed. Amidst this, analysts warn that increased political scrutiny could make regulatory approval harder.
For investors assessing Tesla or SpaceX stock price prediction, the uncertainty now extends well beyond the latest selloff. The market is still betting on a merger, even as the political environment surrounding both companies is becoming difficult.
