Business
November 2, 2026
Anthropic IPO Targets $3.5B Japan Sale as OpenAI Signs Four Abu Dhabi Deals
- SpaceX leads bets for 2026’s largest IPO by market capitalisation, with Polymarket showing 66% odds against Anthropic IPO’s 29.8%
- SpaceX’s $1.77 trillion IPO valuation sets the benchmark as some Anthropic investors weigh a reported $1.5 trillion valuation
- Anthropic’s quarterly computing expenses reached $9.86 billion, consuming 58% of revenue and adding pressure to its IPO valuation debate
SpaceX has already put a number on the contest for 2026’s biggest stock market debut. Now the Anthropic IPO has to answer it. Traders are favouring Elon Musk’s company as the Claude developer prepares to pitch investors, even after a sharp rise in quarterly sales. The question is how close Anthropic can get to SpaceX’s valuation, and whether the final price will leave buyers enough room for the growth they expect.
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SpaceX IPO Sets the Benchmark for Anthropic
On November 4, Polymarket put SpaceX at approximately 66% in its market for 2026’s largest IPO by market capitalisation. Anthropic stood at 29.8%, with more than $7.4 million traded across the outcomes.
The market ranks company valuations. The amount raised through a share sale is a separate measure, so the biggest offering need not win.
SpaceX priced its offering at $135 a share on June 11. The initial sale raised $75 billion and valued the company at $1.77 trillion. Trading began the following day under SPCX. SpaceX stock closed its first session at $160.95, giving the company a market capitalisation of approximately $2.1 trillion.
Anthropic’s valuation remains under discussion. Some investors are weighing in at approximately $1.5 trillion, down from roughly $2 trillion. Its filing applies for a Nasdaq listing under ANT, with the offer-price range still blank in the November 2 amendment.
A $1.5 trillion offer valuation would sit below SpaceX’s initial $1.77 trillion pricing. Anthropic’s first trading session could change the comparison, making the final offer terms and market reception central to the contest.
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Computing Costs Add Context to Anthropic’s Pitch
Anthropic revenue reached $16.96 billion in Q3, up approximately 47% quarter over quarter. Computing expenses grew 77.5% to $9.86 billion, absorbing 58% of sales, up from 48%, according to its IPO filing.
The company posted a $567 million GAAP operating loss, including a $1.96 billion noncash charitable charge. Adjusted operating profit rose to $2.46 billion from $2.24 billion, but its adjusted margin fell to roughly 15% from 19%.
The Information reports that Anthropic uses Claude AI in chip design, with engineers estimating faster workflows.
Prospective Anthropic stock buyers will have to weigh that pressure against the company’s growth. Beating SpaceX in the valuation race would make a headline. The price paid for those future earnings will matter longer.
