Deutsche Bank Sees Copper Price at $22,050, BMO Targets $18K as China Supply Tightens

• Copper price could reach $22,050 a ton by Q2 2027, according to Deutsche Bank’s forecast
• Report says BMO has raised its longer-term copper forecast to about $18,000 a ton by 2030
• China’s refined copper output is expected to grow just 3%–3.4% in 2026 as smelters face tighter concentrate and scrap supplies

Deutsche Bank thinks copper price could climb nearly 50% by next year. BMO has reportedly raised its longer-term forecast too. Meanwhile, China’s refiners are struggling to source enough concentrate and scrap, even as they continue to increase output. The banks’ price targets are eye-catching, but the trouble at Chinese smelters gives the forecasts a more immediate edge. How much copper can those plants keep producing if supply gets tighter?

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Deutsche Bank’s Copper Price Forecast Reaches $22,050

Deutsche Bank’s Daniel Ghali expects copper to hit $10 a pound, or about $22,050 a metric ton, in the second quarter of 2027. This would be a rise of nearly 50% from the price level used in his forecast. His argument rests partly on stockpiling. China has built strategic reserves over decades, while the threat of US tariffs has drawn copper into American warehouses. Metal sitting in the wrong place can be difficult for buyers elsewhere to obtain, even when global inventories look adequate on paper.

Ghali expects higher prices eventually to push some manufacturers toward aluminum, a cheaper but less efficient conductor. He believes copper has yet to become expensive enough to drive that switch widely. His forecast is a scenario built on continuing pressure on available supply, rather than a price the market has already reached.

Another forecast by BMO has also been making the rounds, putting copper near $18,000 a ton by 2030. Mining investor Robert Friedland said,

“Despite the many factors behind their upgrade, one key catalyst is the “freight train of capex” necessary to support existing mine output. Copper miners today need to “spend more to stay”… our industry needs to spend considerably more on sustaining capex to offset declining grades as we mine increasingly challenging ore bodies.”

The two numbers should be read with their dates attached. Deutsche Bank is forecasting a price for next year, and the BMO figure looks toward the end of the decade.

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China’s Smelters Struggle to Find Enough Copper Feedstock

The immediate strain is showing up at Chinese smelters. Analysts expect the country’s refined copper output to grow 3%–3.4% this year, down from 10.4% in 2025, according to reports. Copper concentrate is scarce, and a tightening scrap market is giving refiners less room to substitute one source of material for another. Output is still expected to rise, just much more slowly.

China holds 56% of capacity among the world’s 21 largest copper refineries, according to reports. Those plants account for roughly a third of global refining capacity. Their scale shows why Chinese supply matters so much to the market, but refinery capacity alone cannot solve a shortage of material to process. This is the pressure point behind the banks’ bullish copper calls.

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