- Gold ETF holdings have climbed toward 100 million ounces, even as the gold price has pulled back from its recent highs
- Steve Hanke expects the secular gold bull market to eventually peak between $6,000 and $7,000 an ounce
- China’s US Treasury holdings have fallen to $618 billion as the country continues expanding its gold reserves
The gold price has lost some of its recent momentum, but investors have not followed it out the door. Global gold ETF holdings are nearing 100 million ounces, while China continues trimming US Treasuries and adding the metal to its reserves. Economist Steve Hanke now sees the wider bull market eventually peaking as high as $7,000. The gap between weaker spot prices and strengthening demand may be the more important signal.
Gold Price Lags Behind Rising ETF Demand

Gold-backed funds have quietly rebuilt their holdings after the decline seen between April and July. Latest reports put global holdings at roughly 100 million ounces, their highest level in at least nine months.
Funds have added more than 4 million ounces since the July low, while eight consecutive sessions of inflows marked their longest buying streak since October 2025. The latest World Gold Council data can be used to track how those flows develop.
What stands out is the divergence. Gold and ETF holdings moved together until mid-August, but fund demand continued climbing as the metal retreated. The Kobeissi Letter believes the gold price could move above $5,000 if it catches up with that accumulation.
This is a market interpretation rather than a firm forecast. But it gives investors a reason to look beyond the recent pullback.
Hanke’s Gold Price Prediction Reaches $7,000
Steve Hanke has gone further. The Johns Hopkins economist said he is sticking with his forecast that the secular gold bull market will eventually peak between $6,000 and $7,000 an ounce.
Hanke did not attach a deadline to the call, making it a longer-term gold price prediction rather than a target for the coming months. Reaching the top of that range would require continued investment demand and sustained buying by central banks.
China Gold Reserves Rise as Treasury Holdings Fall
China is already moving in that direction. Its holdings of US Treasuries fell to $618 billion in July, their lowest level since August 2008, according to the latest reports.
Over the same period, China’s gold reserves have expanded. Reported holdings have increased by nearly 400 tonnes since 2020 and have more than doubled since 2015, reaching around 2,387 tonnes.
The Treasury figures do not capture bonds held through every overseas custodian, so they should not be read as a complete exit from US debt. Even so, the direction is hard to miss. ETF investors are returning to metal, China is diversifying its reserves, and Hanke expects the gold cycle to have much further to run. The $7,000 call remains ambitious, but the buyers behind it are already visible.
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