Markets
September 24, 2026
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- Gold price and silver price are gaining as markets look beyond the upcoming Fed rate decision and assess the outlook for interest rates
- The gold rally comes as traders weigh whether the Fed could signal a less hawkish path after the expected rate move
- The Fed remains the key driver for precious metals, with the Fed rate decision likely to shape the next move in gold and silver
The Fed rate decision is impacting multiple industries at once. Starting with the precious metals, gold and silver prices are currently tapping into the current market momentum, with gold price targeting the $5K price top again. The gold price has moved higher, as traders are now positioning for the first US Fed rate hike in about three years. Alongside that, silver price has also been recovering its losses as of late, climbing up the radar. Spot gold is up 0.8% at $4326 an ounce, while spot silver has gained 1.5% to hit $64.50. The move is signaling how the precious metal sector is pricing in for a potential Fed rate hike, with nearly a 92.7% chance of a 25-basis-point hike per CME FedWatch data.
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Why Is Gold Rising Ahead?
The markets have already been gearing up for this change. The traders have already prepared themselves for this narrative, projecting their faith in gold’s resilience against such volatile events. In addition to this, the traders are looking at a broader narrative, focusing on how this hike may compel the central banks to lay out rules for the future. Traders are also watching for signals on what this hike could mean for future Fed policy changes. This development is being reflected in the rising gold and silver prices.
Jesse Columbo, a metals analyst, shared how gold may end up witnessing a relief rally if the Fed rate decision ends up favoring a 25 basis point hike.
“In general, I don’t like to place bets ahead of major binary events like this,” he said. “I don’t believe I have an edge in that regard. But I suspect that there’s going to be a ‘buy the news’ rally, a relief rally… Especially after [Friday’s] CPI, these rate hike expectations will not come as a surprise to the market—this has already been well telegraphed going on for months, so a big part of me just believes that we should rip the Band-Aid off and get it behind us. There’s so much speculation about, “Is there going to be a rate hike or not?”
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What Happens To Gold If The Fed Holds The Current Interest Rates Per The Analyst
Colombo has also shared another possible narrative, stating how the gold price may be $5K if the Federal Reserve decides to hold the current interest rates.
“As a final confirmation, I do want to see a solid close above $4,400,” he said. “That would be in conjunction with a relief rally from the Fed, or maybe them not even hiking, but I want to see it close above $4,400. If so, I think we’re going to head up to $5,000 in the next few months. I would like to see a daily close at a minimum, with very strong volume on futures, and also ideally in ETFs and mining stocks. You want to see volume come in because it shows institutions are backing the move.”
Silver Price Joins the Relief Rally
The silver price has also been gaining steam alongside gold. The spot silver has risen by 1.5% to hit $64.60 on Wednesday, per Reuters. Silver price has also been experiencing significant volatility stemming from higher yield and rate hike expectations. However, the demand for the metal is holding strong due to its industrial appeal. The precious metal sector overall is heavily relying on the current Fed rate cut decision as a catalyst.
If the Federal Reserve decides to ramp up rates, it may result in the gold price and silver price recovering some of their lost momentum. This may happen as some of the pressure on precious metals may wear off, resulting in a modest gold price rally.
