Bitcoin Price Gets $500K Call, JPMorgan Sees BTC Edge Over Gold & Reserves Hit $5T

• Bitcoin price could gain more support than gold if investors unwind ETF hedges, JPMorgan says
• Official gold reserves reached roughly $5 trillion in market value, overtaking foreign official US Treasury holdings
• Ric Edelman sees Bitcoin reaching $500,000 by 2030 if investors globally allocate around 1% of their assets to BTC

Gold has the central banks behind it. Bitcoin has a $500,000 forecast and, according to JPMorgan, a possible opening in the ETF market. The two assets are competing for investors looking to preserve wealth, but demand has recovered unevenly this year. Gold funds have regained more ground, while Bitcoin ETF investors remain cautious. The caution is central to the bank’s latest argument about what could help the Bitcoin price catch up with gold.

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Bitcoin Price Near $77K as JPMorgan Watches ETF Hedges

Bitcoin was trading around $76,955 at press time, up roughly 0.8% over 24 hours, with a market capitalization near $1.55 trillion, according to the latest market data. The token has spent much of September moving between the mid-$70,000s and low-$80,000s after a stronger run in August.

Investors have returned to both gold and Bitcoin ETFs since the Federal Reserve’s late-July meeting. Yet gold funds have recovered all their earlier 2026 outflows, compared with roughly half for Bitcoin funds, JPMorgan analysts said in a report.

The team, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, pointed to another difference. Short interest in BlackRock’s IBIT remains close to its highest level this year. For SPDR Gold Shares, it sits below the historical average.

IBIT’s higher put-to-call open-interest ratio also suggests investors are carrying more protection against losses. Those hedges matter. Reducing them could provide more support for Bitcoin than gold, the analysts argued. But the report offers no certainty that investors will unwind those positions, much less trigger a short squeeze. The analysts said,

“While we recognize that other factors might also affect the bitcoin and gold trajectories going forward, from a positioning point of view, the more elevated short interest in the IBIT vs. GLD ETF could create more support for bitcoin vs gold from here if hedging demand is reduced.”

Recent conditions have also become less favorable. JPMorgan said rising inflation-adjusted bond yields and the Senate’s failure to advance the Clarity Act had weakened the debasement trade over the preceding week.

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Gold Has the Reserves, Bitcoin Has the $500K Forecast

Gold has a milestone of its own. A recent chart shows official gold reserves at roughly $5 trillion, overtaking about $3.9 trillion in foreign official US Treasury holdings. The chart draws on IMF and US Treasury data.

The gold holdings are valued at market prices, so the increase reflects bullion’s rally as well as changes in holdings. The crossover gives gold more weight in the store-of-value debate, although the comparison alone does not establish it as the world’s largest reserve asset.

Both gold purchases and higher prices contributed. The figures compare two categories of holdings, they do not make gold the world’s leading reserve currency. The dollar retains that role.

Ric Edelman sees considerable room for Bitcoin ownership to expand. His recent interview puts BTC at $500,000 by 2030 under a scenario where investors worldwide allocate around 1% of their assets to it.

The assumption is doing considerable work in that Bitcoin price prediction. Such an allocation would require much bigger participation than a recovery in ETF flows.

For now, gold has already secured a larger place in official reserves. Bitcoin could benefit if cautious investors remove some protection, as JPMorgan suggests. Edelman’s target depends on something more demanding which is investors choosing to hold substantially more BTC over the coming years.

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