Bitcoin Stock Correlation Drops to 2015 Levels as Whale Profits Hit $9.07B

• Bitcoin stock correlation has fallen to levels Willy Woo says were last seen in 2015, before the 2017 bull cycle
• Short-term Bitcoin whale unrealized profits reached a record $9.07 billion, the highest level in data going back to 2016
• The Bitcoin price faces a key test around $80,000, while the short-term holder cost basis near $71,000 provides an important downside level

Bitcoin (BTC) is beginning to trade differently from the stock market again. Its recent divergence from the S&P 500 has drawn comparisons with 2015, a period that eventually preceded the 2017 bull run. But the latest Bitcoin stock correlation signal comes with a complication. The Bitcoin price has struggled to stay above $80,000, while one group of large holders is sitting on more paper profit than at any point in nearly a decade.

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Bitcoin Stock Correlation Returns to Levels Last Seen in 2015

On-chain analyst Willy Woo flagged the divergence over the weekend, saying Bitcoin has not decoupled from stocks to this degree since 2015. His chart compares BTC with the S&P 500 and shows their correlation dropping sharply into negative territory.

The comparison is notable because 2015 came before Bitcoin’s run into the 2017 cycle. It should be noted that the signal is being debated. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost challenged Woo’s interpretation, arguing that the apparent decoupling changes depending on the timeframe used to calculate correlation.

The market backdrop is also very different this time. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $730.8 million in net inflows on September 3, their strongest day since January, as BTC briefly moved above $82,000.

This momentum has since cooled. Bitcoin was trading near $78,393 at press time, down about 1.6% over 24 hours after repeatedly failing to hold $80,000.

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Bitcoin Whale Profits Hit a Record $9.07 Billion

Amidst this, another set of data shows unrealized Bitcoin profits among short-term whales reached a record $9.07 billion on September 4, the highest level in data going back to 2016. The figure fell to $7.51 billion the following day but remained among the five highest readings ever recorded. All five occurred within the past two weeks.

That doesn’t mean a sell-off has started. Unrealized gains remain paper profits until coins are actually sold. But CryptoQuant contributor IT Tech warned that short-term whales have historically been quick to realize gains when prices weaken.

At present, the unusual Bitcoin stock divergence is giving bulls a historical comparison to work with. The record Bitcoin whale profit is sitting above the market, but it makes the next test around $80,000 considerably more important.

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