TTD Stock Is Down 77% in Three Years as Wall Street Debates Whether It’s Finally Cheap

• TTD stock has fallen 77% over the past three years, but valuation models suggest shares are trading close to fair value
• The Trade Desk continues to grow revenue, even as weaker guidance and AI competition pressure investor sentiment
• Analysts remain divided, with bulls pointing to AI-driven advertising while bears warn about data privacy and slowing growth

The past three years have been painful for TTD stock, but the conversation around the company is starting to shift. A sharp decline has reset expectations. Meanwhile, recent earnings failed to impress the market, and some analysts believe the selloff has already priced in many of the risks. The question now isn’t about how far the stock has fallen. It’s whether the business underneath looks stronger than the share price suggests.

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Why TTD Stock Is Back on Investors’ Watchlists

Trade Desk shares have lost roughly 77% over the past three years, even as the company continued expanding its position in digital advertising. TTD stock has fallen sharply from its highs and is trading around $19. This reflects the market’s cautious outlook despite continued revenue growth.

According to Simply Wall St, the stock currently scores 5 out of 6 on its valuation checks. This suggests the fundamentals appear more attractive than recent price performance implies. On earnings, the picture is more balanced. The company trades at roughly 20.7 times earnings, close to its estimated fair multiple of 21.0x. This indicates that the market is pricing in both its growth potential and the challenges it faces.

Revenue continues to move higher. The Trade Desk reported first-quarter revenue of $689 million, up 12% year over year, beating analysts’ expectations of $678.7 million. But earnings per share came in at $0.28, below the expected $0.32. Meanwhile, the second-quarter revenue guidance of at least $750 million also missed Wall Street forecasts of about $770 million. Those numbers triggered a sharp selloff after earnings.

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TTD Still Has AI and Advertising Growth Drivers

Despite the disappointing outlook, management remains confident that long-term trends still favor the business. CEO Jeff Green said advertisers are increasingly shifting toward data-driven campaigns. This is because companies demand measurable returns on marketing budgets. He also noted AI-powered search, retail media and connected TV as some of the fastest-growing opportunities for digital advertising. Green added,

“The role of data in AI and advertising is increasing, and the need for objective outcome-driven platforms has never been greater. We believe all of those trends are working in our favor. And importantly, we believe we are still early in this opportunity. As a result, our best days are ahead of us.”

This optimism has created a split on Wall Street. Bullish analysts believe products like Kokai, OpenPath, and the company’s growing AI capabilities could improve campaign performance and increase customer spending. Bears, however, point to tighter privacy regulations, changes by Apple and Google, and rising competition for advertising dollars as risks that could slow growth.

Currently, TTD stock sits in an unusual position. The business is still growing, and the valuation has become a lot less demanding. Amidst this, investors are debating whether recent weakness shows temporary obstacles or a longer-term shift in the ad-tech landscape. The next few quarters may determine which view proves right.

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